Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s political opponents accused him of calling a snap election to capitalize on fears about Donald Trump and his trade policy. They may have been right, but the gambit is working.
Ford is on track to win a third term leading Canada’s most populous province. His main message to voters is that he’ll do “whatever is necessary” to weather a trade war, including spending tens of billions of dollars and pushing back hard against the US.
Canada is one of the countries most exposed to the US president’s protectionism, and Ontario is one of its most vulnerable parts. Its $1.14 trillion (US$800 billion) economy includes large manufacturing and transportation industries that depend on moving goods easily across the border. If Trump carries out his latest threat — 25% tariffs on automobiles by early April — it would quickly disrupt the Ontario plants owned by General Motors Co., Stellantis NV and others, not to mention parts suppliers.
The Ontario premier’s rhetorical response to Trump’s threats is anything but subtle. “You can’t let someone hit you over the head with a sledgehammer without hitting them back twice as hard, in my opinion,” said Ford, who’s 60.
Ontario is among the US’s largest trading partners, with about $350 billion of goods and services flowing between them in 2023, according to the government.
US tariffs, Ford says, put a solid business relationship at risk. He has threatened to cut off energy supplies to the US, throw all the US-made booze off the shelves of liquor stores, cancel the province’s contract with Elon Musk’s Starlink and bar US companies from public-sector construction projects.
Through the election campaign, the premier has benefited from a perception that he understands business — and from the fact that, after nearly seven years of running the province, he’s a known quantity in a time of crisis.
“People crave the stability of what they know over the prospect of an unknown in a situation where there is that threat,” said Julie Simmons, an associate professor of political science at the University of Guelph. The two major opposing parties trying to unseat him are running with new leaders.
While the race has narrowed in recent days, polling suggests Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party stands a chance of increasing its majority in the Feb. 27 election. It won 83 of the 124 seats in the last provincial election in 2022.
Ford is seen “as a grinder out there working for the people,” Simmons said. He gives his mobile phone number to constituents, used his own truck to pick up donated masks during the pandemic and shoveled snow to free a stranded motorist.
That image has held “despite some very egregious scandals, which suggests some of the worst cronyism we’ve seen in Ontario politics,” Simmons said.
Housing scandal
In 2023, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police announced it was investigating allegations related to the Ford government’s decision to open up some environmentally protected land to housing developers. The move immediately made those parcels worth billions. A report by Bonnie Lysyk, then the province’s auditor-general, said certain developers had received “preferential treatment” because they enjoyed special access to the housing minister’s chief of staff.
The premier, who reversed the decision in September 2023, told reporters he was “confident” nothing criminal took place. Grace Lee, a spokesperson for Ford, said he hasn’t been contacted by the RCMP. A spokesperson for the police force declined to comment on the investigation.
Bonnie Crombie, 65, the leader of the Ontario Liberal Party, and Marit Stiles, leader of the Ontario New Democratic Party, have both accused Ford of triggering the early election to distract from the probe.
“Ontarians see through his attempt to call an election in the middle of one of the most difficult and precarious times for our province and for our country,” Stiles, 55, said in an interview.
Voters may acknowledge Ford’s motivations, but they’re focused on the “bigger existential threat” of a trade war, said Laura Stephenson, a political science professor at Western University in London, Ontario.
Both Stiles and Crombie reject Ford’s suggestion to cut off energy exports to the US if necessary. But all three leaders support increased trade with other provinces, local procurement and, if needed, retaliatory levies.
Stiles promises that 33% of procurement would go to small and medium-sized enterprises in Ontario, while Crombie’s plan would halve the tax rate for small businesses and offer them low-interest loans. Crombie declined an interview for this story.
Stiles hopes voters see her as an accomplished alternative to Ford.
“I have a lot of experience negotiating big national contracts with big American multinational corporations in the past, and delivering good benefits and higher wages for Canadian workers,” she said, pointing to her 10 years as a national director with the Alliance of Canadian Cinema, Television and Radio Artists, a union.
But non-incumbents will have trouble matching the star power of Ford, who comes from a political family. His late father was also a provincial politician; his late brother, Rob Ford, won a stunning victory to become mayor of Toronto in 2010 (and later made global headlines when he was caught on video smoking crack cocaine).
Of Crombie and Stiles, “there are still many Ontario voters who couldn’t name them as leaders,” Simmons said. “It’s Doug Ford, the person, who has the support of a lot of Ontarians.”
Melissa Shin, Bloomberg News
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