Fish food could be one of the more obscure casualties of a world fighting over trade, disrupting a supply chain that runs from the North American prairies to the thousands of fish farms that dot China’s rivers, lakes and deltas.
The shrimp, crab and carp that grace Chinese cuisine feed heavily on rapeseed meal, much of it derived from the vast yellow fields of the crop that Canadians call canola.
But the trade, worth about US$780 million in 2024, has become uneconomical after Beijing slapped a 100% tariff on the commodity in retaliation for Ottawa’s duties on electric cars, steel and aluminum.
China has the world’s largest aquaculture industry, producing almost 60 million tons of fish and shellfish in 2024, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The creatures get protein from rapeseed meal, produced by crushing the oilseed, and Canada is by far the country’s dominant overseas supplier.
Chinese rapeseed meal futures have risen 3% since the tariff was imposed on March 10, a relatively muted response so far. But a supply crunch that pushes seafood prices higher could develop if Beijing follows through with levies on canola itself — a crop that China imports in larger volumes than meal and which is subject to an ongoing anti-dumping probe.
That leaves fish farmers eyeing their options. Use more domestic rapeseed — and push up prices further; crush more imported canola — and hope it isn’t tariffed; find other exporters; or look for substitute proteins like soybean meal.
Soybeans are a more expensive oilseed normally fed to livestock. Their meal is lighter in color and whether through custom or taste, some fish tend to eat more when they’re presented with darker rations of rapeseed meal, according to industry experts.
Still, some feed producers have already adjusted their recipes, cutting the ratio of rapeseed meal and replacing it with soy, said Meng Zhangyu, an analyst with Wuchan Zhongda Futures Co.
“But if trade relations continue to worsen, and China imposes tariffs on Canadian canola, that will be fatal,” Meng said. “It is hard to find substitute suppliers.”
Russia or Australia could be alternatives, but can’t make up all of Canada’s supply, he said. If canola is tariffed, “rapeseed product prices will rise significantly,” he said.
The latest trade measures on Canadian meal are expected to tighten supplies from April, said Rosa Wang, an analyst with Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. Ltd. Otherwise, there’s China’s domestic rapeseed harvest, although that isn’t considered particularly suitable for feed and in any case won’t be available in large quantities until May or June.
Hallie Gu, Bloomberg News
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